Browsing by Author "Covenant University, Dissertation"

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A PRAGMA-SEMIOTIC ANALYSIS OF POLITICAL MEMES OF THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NIGERIA
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-08) ADEWUMI, Adetola Theresa; Covenant University, Dissertation
In modern online discourse, memes have emerged as a strategic tool for expressing and conveying opinions and ideologies on political, economic and socio-cultural events. They have been evidently important in shaping perception of the voting public in Nigeria especially during electoral processes. On this premise, this study examines political memes shared on social media platforms in Nigeria during the 2023 presidential election, as well as analyse their linguistic and visual components. The research seeks to identify pragmatic act and semiotic resources to realise varying interpretations embedded in the memes. The problem addressed is the need to understand how political memes are conveyed online through multimodal resources and the significance of the study lies in its contribution to pragma-semiotics and online political discourse. Using a qualitative method, twenty (20) memes sourced from different social media platforms like Facebook, X, Instagram, YouTube and blogspots, were analysed using Mey’s (2001) Pragmatic Act and Kress and van Leuween (2006) Visual Design Grammar theories as framework for the analysis. Findings reveals that meme authors employ contextual variables such as strong criticism, persuasion, comparisons, etc. enhanced by pragmemes like shared situational knowledge, reference and metaphor to create memes aimed at lampooning electoral systems. The study further displays the deployment of semiotic designs categories under representational, interactive and compositional modes to evaluate symbolisms, framing, salience, social distancing, colour, mood as tools for visual interpretations. Results also indicate strong influence of political ideologies, age differences, political and economic instability and previous records of manipulations in the electoral system as motivating factors for the creation of this memes. Overall, ideological views though subjective, are portrayed through the political memes as tools to creating awareness against underlying illegitimate practices in the Nigerian electoral system.
A QUASI-EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF TAX EDUCATION ON TAX AWARENESS OF UNDERGRADUATE STUDENTS IN COVENANT UNIVERSITY
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-07) MURELE, Funmilayo Okikola; Covenant University, Dissertation
Some of the evidence that is available on the effects of formal tax education on awareness of current tax reforms is rather fragmentary and it does not compare differences in the curriculum structures and their delivery by different programmes. The main research goal of this study was to find out the effect of tax education on undergraduate students' tax awareness based on the 2026 tax reform policy. The quasi-experimental research design was used, involving 220 valid questionnaires of which 253 were distributed, between accounting students and Economics students. The data were processed using descriptive statistics, independent-samples t-test and multiple linear regression. All the hypotheses were tested at 5% level of significance. The results indicated that there is a significant difference between Accounting and Economics students in tax awareness (t = 2.259, p = .025) and accounting students have higher mean scores (12.78) than Economics students (11.71). The regression model was significant overall (F = 3.399, p = .019) but not for any of the individual predictors. A second model including the number of seminars attended also was significant overall (F = 2.748, p = .029) with no individually significant predictors. The study suggests that universities should enhance the tax education courses and create new supplementary tax education channels to enhance the tax awareness of students.
ANALYSIS OF TELEMIGRATION AND YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-06) AMBRO-MOYE, KECHIRO JULIET; Covenant University, Dissertation
The study analyses telemigration and youth unemployment across selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. It investigates how electricity availability, internet penetration, and educational attainment influence young people’s ability to engage in telemigration and, by extension, impact youth unemployment. The study contributes to the body of literature on the future of work by supporting Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8, which is about decent work and economic growth, and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 9, which covers industry, innovation, and infrastructure. With the use of a quantitative research approach, the study analyses the panel data from 31 selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2017 to 2024, applying Fixed Effects and Random Effects panel regression, cross-sectional dependence diagnostics, and dynamic Panel Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) estimation to yield robust and unbiased findings. The findings from the study show that internet penetration and educational attainment significantly affect youth participation in telemigration, while electricity access, though it is important, it exhibits an uneven effect. This is because of infrastructural inconsistencies across the countries. The GMM results show that telemigration significantly reduces youth unemployment in the selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. In addition, the results show that persistent structural barriers, including digital inequality, skills gaps, and institutional weaknesses, limit the full potential of telemigration in the region. It offers policy recommendations, emphasising that governments across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) should actively expand mobile money and digital banking infrastructure to enable youth to receive cross-border payments from telemigration platforms efficiently and at low cost. Reducing transaction costs and improving financial inclusion for youth digital workers will increase net earnings from telemigration and strengthen its impact in reducing youth unemployment. The cross-sectional dependence among Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries in the study means that telemigration shocks and opportunities spill across national borders. Regional bodies such as the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the East African Community (EAC) should facilitate regional digital infrastructure corridors, harmonised digital skills standards, and cross-border payment systems that enable youth telemigrants to efficiently receive earnings. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework should incorporate explicit provisions for digital services trade and telemigration, creating a policy environment that amplifies the employment benefits of telemigration at the continental scale. The study explains that telemigration can serve as a reliable pathway for youth employment and economic transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), provided that critical structural constraints are effectively addressed.
ASSESSMENT OF CHANGE MANAGEMENT ON LEADERSHIP EFFECTIVENESS IN THE NIGERIAN FINANCIAL SERVICES SECTOR: A STUDY OF GTBANK LAGOS
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-06) OLAYINKA, TIJESUNIMI WISDOM; Covenant University, Dissertation
Organisational transformation has become increasingly prominent within the Nigerian financial services sector due to digital banking expansion, financial technology integration, regulatory reforms, operational restructuring, and changing customer expectations. Although organisational change is gaining prominence, the evidence of the effect of change management on the effectiveness of leadership in the banking sector in Nigeria is scanty. This study examined the impact of change management on leadership effectiveness in the Nigerian financial services sector (NFS) with GTBank in Lagos as the context of the study. The research design used was quantitative cross-sectional explanatory research, which is based on the positivist philosophy. Data was collected using structured questionnaire from the employees of selected GTBank branches in Lagos state. Data was analysed descriptively and further analysed by Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) software version 4.0.The data were analysed descriptively and then analysed using the software PLS-SEM version 4.0. The results indicated that the effective change management had a significant impact on the leadership in each of the dimensions of the study. In general, the study confirmed that structured change management practices help to enhance the effectiveness of the leadership in developing adaptability of the organisation during transitional process. The study further recommends that financial institutions improve their organizational communication network, adopt participatory leadership practice, invest in the ongoing development of staff and ensure leadership commitment for improvement is visible to the staff during organizational change to improve their leadership
ASSESSMENT OF CROSS BORDER ARMS TRAFFICKING IN NIGERIA AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL SECURITY
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-06) OFFONG, Jeremiah Etuk; Covenant University, Dissertation
The study assesses cross border arms trafficking in Nigeria and its implications for Regional Security. The illicit movement of arms across the borders is one serious challenge to Nigeria's national security, institutional integrity and sustainable developmental path. Even though Nigeria has an extensive regime of international, regional and national legal obligations on the issue of small arms and light weapons, such as the ECOWAS Convention on Small Arms and Light Weapons, the Arms Trade Treaty and the United Nations Programme of Action, hundreds of thousands of Nigerians have been killed and millions displaced by the insurgency, banditry, farmer-herder clashes and organised crime that continues to plague the country via its 4,047 km borders with Niger, Cameroon, Chad and Benin. To achieve the objective of this study, qualitative research design with descriptive trend analysis of secondary data were used in the study. Some secondary sources were analysed using systematic document analysis that was structured around SDG 16 indicators and organised into five categories: Arms seizure reports, Violence and conflict datasets, Border Security and governance assessments, Regional and international organisation reports, and peer-reviewed journal articles (2010 to 2025). The study findings showed that cross-border arms trafficking in Nigeria is a self-reinforcing structural governance problem, which requires concurrently integrated reforms in institutional integrity, border infrastructure, socio-economic development, regional security cooperation and technological modernisation. The study recommended that the government of Nigeria needs to make an urgent priority reform of institutional integrity in the border security agencies as a precondition for all other investments in counter-arms trafficking and concluded that Nigeria, ECOWAS and the international community need an integrated, simultaneous and structurally adequate response to the issue of arms trafficking on a global scale.
ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL COUNTER TERRORISM STRATEGY AND HUMAN SECURITY IN BORNO STATE, NIGERIA
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-08) JOSEPH, Ruth Modupeoluwa; Covenant University, Dissertation
Terrorism is still impacting Borno State more than a decade after the National Counter- Terrorism Strategy (NACTEST) of Nigeria was adopted, leaving a question of how far the strategy has gone in yielding its desired results. While military operations have played a role in territorial recovery, a focus on timely security responses appears to have overshadowed other non-kinetic considerations, such as civilian protection. The study addresses the four pillars of the strategy: Forestall, Secure, Identify, and Implement and their respective dimensions for addressing issues relating to radicalisation, civilian protection, early warning, and institution coordination. The analysis is guided by Human Security Theory and Policy Implementation Theory and adopts a single-case embedded qualitative design. Borno State was selected because its setting of insurgency, military action, displacement, and reintegration provides a suitable context for understanding the implementation of policy decisions. Primary data were collected through twenty semi-structured interviews with military personnel, civil society representatives, community members, and academic experts. Thematic and discourse analyses were adopted to analyse these accounts using secondary sources. The findings reveal that NACTEST remains military oriented and, at times, states’ security focus is more on military than on human security. The Forestall pillar is still hindered by socio-economic exclusion and resistance to the return of the former combatants. The Secure pillar has helped reclaim territory from insurgent groups but has also been associated with reductions in civil rights and disruptions to livelihoods. Competition amongst institutions further inhibits the sharing of intelligence and cooperation and reduces the impact of the Identify and Implement pillars. Patterns show that military success is not enough for long-term stabilisation in an environment of institutional weaknesses and unresolved community grievances. There is a need for a more balanced approach, with focus on civilian welfare, human rights and effective security operations. The study calls for the enhancement of socio-economic measures, accountability of institutions, protection of victims, and reliable information sharing. This can help ease the de-radicalisation of environments and help foster social cohesion in these communities. The study also advances the literature on security studies by studying and assessing counterterrorism policy through civilian safety and public trust as measures of policy success.
COMBUSTION PERFORMANCE OF PALM KERNEL SHELL BIOCHAR BRIQUETTE MODIFIED WITH ACID-LEACHED NEEM LEAF ASH
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026) ADEYEYE, PEACE IFEOLUWA; Covenant University, Dissertation
Wood fuel contributes significantly to air pollution and deforestation. Agro-waste briquetting as solid fuel has emerged to reduce the burden on forest resources, but its adoption is hindered by poor combustion performance and high pollutant emissions. This study developed biomass briquettes from Palm Kernel Shell (PKS) biochar modified with Acid-Leached Neem Leaf Ash (ALNLA) and rendered beef tallow. This is to target improved combustion efficiency and reduced harmful emissions, for household cookstove applications. Neem leaves were calcined at 750°C and then leached with 2M HCl at 45°C for 2 hours, thereby achieving a leachability percentage of 91.24% and producing a silica-enriched residue (SiO₂ = 57.86 wt%; Fe₂O₃ = 8.20 wt%; CaO = 7.52 wt%). PKS biochar was produced by slow pyrolysis at 550°C. Six briquette formulations (B1–B6) were prepared and characterized using XRF, FT-IR, XRD, TGA, and proximate analysis. Water boiling test (WBT), and measurement of burn duration, combustion temperature and some Toxic Air Pollutants (TAP) (CO, SO₂, NO₂ and particulate matter) emission, heating value and fixed carbon, were carried out. All formulations outperformed commercial charcoal in burn duration by factors of 1.97 – 4.02%. Formulation B6 (90% biochar, 1.0% ALNLA, 10% starch) achieved the longest burn duration (378 minutes), highest combustion temperature (1109°C), and lowest stabilized TAP emissions. Formulation B5 recorded the highest estimated higher heating value (5.78 MJ/kg) and fixed carbon (15.59%). These results demonstrate the viability of acid-leached neem leaf ash as a low-cost, waste-derived modifier for producing cleaner-burning briquettes suited to Sub-Saharan African household energy needs.
CONTRASTIVE ANALYSIS OF MORPHOLOGICAL PROCESSES IN ENGLISH AND HAUSA: A STUDY OF PSALM 91
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-08) ACHI, SALOME HOSEA; Covenant University, Dissertation
Morphology, being the study of word structure and formation, plays a central role in understanding how languages encode grammatical and lexical meaning. To this end, meaning exist at various levels of language stud (Edet, 2021; Korochkina & Rastle, 2025). However, significant typological differences exist between English, a largely analytic language, and Hausa, a synthetic and morphologically rich language. These differences become particularly evident in translated religious texts, where equivalent meanings are expressed through structurally divergent morphological systems. This study therefore investigated the contrastive morphological processes in English and Hausa languages using Psalm 91 as a parallel corpus. The aim of this study was to conduct a contrastive analysis of morphological processes in Psalm 91 using King James English and Littafi Mai Sarki Hausa versions through the theoretical framework of Item-and-Arrangement (henceforth IA) and Word-and-Paradigm (henceforth WP) theories to account for the observed linguistic patterns. The specific objectives were to: identify and analyse morphological processes in the English version of Psalm 91; examine morphological structures in the Hausa translation of Psalm 91; compare the morphological systems of both languages; apply Word and Paradigm Theory in analysing morphological patterns; utilise Item-and-Arrangement Theory for morphemic segmentation. As such, the study employed a qualitative descriptive research design and purposive sampling to select Psalm 91 as a parallel bilingual text. Data were collected through systematic extraction of lexical items and analysed using morphological segmentation and contrastive comparison. Findings revealed that English morphology is predominantly analytic, with limited inflection and productive derivation, while Hausa exhibits a richer, more systematic morphological structure characterised by extensive affixation, possessive marking, and paradigmatic verb systems. The study further showed that Item-and-Arrangement Theory is more suitable for English morphological segmentation, whereas Word-and-Paradigm Theory gave a better explanation of Hausa morphological relationships. The study contributes to the domain of morphology by clarifying English–Hausa morphological distinctions in the Biblical text. It also validates the complementary application of IA and WP theories, and informs linguistic analysis, translation, and language pedagogy.
DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH-PERFORMANCE FIBER-REINFORCED MORTAR COMPOSITE AS A SUSTAINABLE BUILDING MATERIAL
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-08) NAKADE, Fun-Akede Afingi; Covenant University, Dissertation
The construction sector is responsible for 5-10% of the global CO₂ emissions, most of which come from the production of concrete. The research interest is shifting towards green cementitious and fiber composites as an alternative to traditional materials, as they are lightweight, renewable and efficient. Traditional decorative and insulation panels in tropical countries, like Nigeria, are usually made with harmful chemicals, and coconut coir, an abundant agricultural by-product, is not widely used. This study aims to create a coir–glass fiber reinforced mortar composite to improve the indoor environmental quality and durability of buildings. It also includes supplementary cementitious materials, Palm Kernel Shell Ash (PKSA) and Ground Granulated Blast Slag (GGBS) and looks at gaps in literature regarding fiber lengths <10 mm and mid-range fiber content (0.1–0.6%). The coir fibers are treated with alkali solution for improving performance. The physical and mechanical properties, water absorption, thermal conductivity and the microstructural behavior (SEM-EDX, XRF) of the composite were evaluated. The neural fitting tool provided in MATLAB®2025a was used to model and predict the compressive strength. The results indicated that mercerization process led to decrease in fiber diameters (10-30%) and increased the resistance to chemicals. The results of mechanical analysis showed that low coir content and high glass content (PC+CF0.1+GF0.6) had the highest compressive and flexural strength, whereas high coir content had led to an increase in air voids and decreased matrix compactness. Additionally, the combination of 20% GGBS and PKSA in PC+CF0.2+GF0.5 sample has the best performance in both mortar and concrete. Also, samples containing PKSA exhibited the lowest thermal conductivity (K ≈ 0.0875 W/mK), establishing its potential as an effective insulation material for tropical microclimate. Good correlation between experimental and predicted strength (up to R2 = 0.976 and Pearson's r = 0.988) was obtained and the sensitivity analysis was used to analyze the influence of input parameters on the ANN prediction. The research contributes to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 3, 9, 11, 12) as it aims to convert agricultural waste into valuable building materials for green buildings in the humid tropics.
DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHTWEIGHT EXPLAINABLE ADAPTIVE FRAMEWORK FOR UNSUPERVISED ANOMALY DETECTION IN ENCRYPTED INTERNET OF THINGS NETWORKS
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-09) IJEH, Adaora Princess; Covenant University, Dissertation
The rapid growth of encrypted Internet of Things (IoT) networks has increased the need for lightweight and adaptive anomaly detection methods that can operate without inspecting packet payloads. This study proposes a lightweight, adaptive, and explainable framework for unsupervised anomaly detection in encrypted IoT traffic using a unidirectional GRU autoencoder, Page-Hinkley-based drift and evasion detection, LoRA-based continual adaptation, and a surrogate decision tree for explanations. Experiments on the CIC IoT-DIAD 2024 dataset achieved an F1-score of 0.9415, ROC-AUC of 0.9469, PR-AUC of 0.9673, and false-positive rate of 1.59% for the static baseline. The proposed PH-UP mechanism detected simulated concept drift after 13,127 sequences, while PH-DOWN detected an inserted BruteForce evasion window within 11 sequences. LoRA adaptation required only 768 trainable parameters (0.8% of the model) and achieved an F1-score of 0.9445, while introducing only 0.78% computational overhead. The explainability surrogate produced explanations in 0.240 ms per instance. INT8 quantization reduced the model size by approximately 71.5%, from 384.2 KB to 109.6 KB, with post-recalibration F1-score of 0.9431 and false-positive rate of 1.15%. These results demonstrate that the framework can provide accurate, adaptive, computationally efficient, and explainable anomaly detection for resource-constrained encrypted IoT environments.
DEVELOPMENT OF A REGENERATIVE BRAKING MODEL USING MAMDANI FUZZY LOGIC CONTROL FOR BATTERY MANAGEMENT IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-08) BELLO, Esosasere Victory; Covenant University, Dissertation
Electric vehicles are one of the key options on the pathway to sustainable mobility, however, optimising the energy efficiency of EVs is a central engineering challenge. One of the most promising methods for extending driving range to the battery onboard a vehicle is regenerative braking, which recycles kinetic energy when the vehicle brakes, but causes transient charging currents and power peaks for the BMS to manage safely. How and when the braking torque is applied to regeneration is thus a key control strategy in energy performance and battery health. This work presents and tests a full regenerative braking model with battery management for EVs based on a Mamdani fuzzy logic controller that was selected by a principle-based and evidence-based comparative screening that compared this controller with a Takagi-Sugeno alternative. Both drivers took the full 1180-second New European Driving Cycle (NEDC). The comparative screening results have shown that the Mamdani controller has lower total battery SOC depletion for the entire NEDC (0.65%) when compared to Takagi-Sugeno (0.70%), which makes it the controller used for the entire model. The selected Mamdani-controlled model was evaluated with regards to the measured engineering outputs and showed: a net consumption of battery energy of 292.5 Wh over the complete NEDC test; an estimated regenerative energy of 73 Wh (ca. 20% regenerative efficiency) over the whole NEDC test; armature current between 0–35 A; stable motor speed tracking of the NEDC reference profile in both the urban (0–680 s) and the extra-urban (681–1180 s) part of the test.
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADAPTIVE VIRTUAL SYNCHRONOUS GENERATOR-BASED FREQUENCY CONTROL STRATEGY FOR HYBRID AC/DC MICROGRIDS
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-08) BELLO, Abiodun Yusuff; Covenant University, Dissertation
The rapid transition to sustainable energy sources has led to the large-scale integration of renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind power into today's power grids. These renewable resources do not generate mechanical inertia like conventional synchronous generators; the grids increasingly risk becoming more unstable when frequencies drop. This is particularly challenging in hybrid AC/DC microgrids, where both AC frequency and DC-link voltage must be controlled simultaneously, and Virtual Synchronous Generator (VSG) control is an efficient solution. A control algorithm is implemented to make inverters behave like the inertial and damping characteristics of a synchronous machine. However, most current VSGbased schemes use fixed values for virtual inertia and damping, which fail under varying disturbance magnitudes. Deviating from a fixed inertia value, this research designed and tested an adaptive VSG-based frequency control method for an isolated hybrid AC/DC Microgrid in MATLAB/Simulink R2024b. Real-time frequency deviation and rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) parameters are used to adapt the VSG frequency control. The interlinking converter was tested under two different load disturbances of opposite nature of 2s, i.e., load decrease and load increase, and compared with the conventional fixed-inertia controller (H = 0.5 kg·m²). In both scenarios, the inverter was found to be electrically stable, and the adaptive inertia was found to be sensitive to each disturbance, showing that it changes its operating condition from 0.5 kg·m² to approximately 0.6 kg·m² instead of remaining fixed; importantly, in each load change scenario, it was observed that the adaptive VSG performed a reduced transient frequency deviation than the conventional controller.
DEVELOPMENT OF COCOA POD HUSK ASH (CPHA) BASED CEMENT MATRIX FOR LOW-COST HOUSING
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-07) UZOMA, Chidera Clinton; Covenant University, Dissertation
The persistent housing deficit in Nigeria, coupled with the escalating cost of Portland Cement (PC), necessitates the development of sustainable and cost-effective alternative binders. This study investigates the combined use of Cocoa Pod Husk Ash (CPHA) and Calcium Carbide Waste (CCW) as supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) for low-cost housing, in comparison with established agro-waste SCMs such as Rice Husk Ash (RHA) and Palm Oil Fuel Ash (POFA). Laboratory analyses were conducted to evaluate the physicochemical and mechanical properties of CPHA and CCW in accordance with ASTM C618 standards. Results indicate that both materials satisfy key physical requirements, with fineness of 10% passing 45 μm and normal consistency values of 33.3% (CPHA) and 34% (CCW). Blended CPHA–CCW mortars exhibited decreasing workability with increasing CCW content, while setting times increased progressively due to higher lime concentration. Among the mix ratios investigated (60:40 to 35:65), the 55:45 CPHA–CCW blend demonstrated the most balanced performance, exhibiting adequate workability (65 mm slump flow), moderate setting time (135 min initial; 273 min final), and superior compressive strength development over curing periods. Comparatively, this optimal ratio performs competitively with conventional SCM systems at 20–30% replacement levels, highlighting the synergistic interaction between silica-rich CPHA and calcium-rich CCW. However, the relatively low silica content of CPHA suggests the need for improved calcination to enhance reactivity. Overall, the study establishes that a 55:45 CPHA–CCW blend is the most effective proportion, offering a viable, eco-friendly alternative to PC while supporting sustainable construction and circular economy practices in Nigeria.
DEVELOPMENT OF HYBRID MODELLING FRAMEWORK FOR FLOOD AND DROUGHT PATTERNS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE VARIABILITIES IN RWANDA
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-08) IRAGUHA, Lionel; Covenant University, Dissertation
Rwanda’s heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture and its complex, steep topography renders it highly vulnerable to escalating climate-induced floods and droughts. Despite advancements in modern predictive technologies, the "black box" nature of traditional machine learning algorithms has significantly hindered their integration into practical policy making and water resource management. To address this gap, this dissertation develops and validates a novel hybrid modelling framework to analyze historical hydro-climatic trends (1981–2024), project future extreme scenarios up to the year 2100, evaluate socio-economic vulnerabilities, and formulate evidencebased adaptation strategies. The methodology leverages high-resolution Earth Observation Data (CHIRPS and ERA5-Land) alongside a bias-corrected CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble to force a SWAT-LSTM hybrid model. Within this framework, the physical SWAT+ model calculates the baseline water mass balance, while a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning network serves as a residual corrector to accurately capture non-linear routing processes and sub-daily temporal dependencies. Historical trend analysis reveals a severe "Temperature Penalty" across Rwanda, where the frequency of warm nights has doubled, dramatically elevating potential evapotranspiration (PET) and driving agricultural drought even in areas where annual rainfall volumes have recovered. Concurrently, the return period for 50-year extreme storm events in the Northern Province has contracted to just 5 years, frequently overwhelming existing municipal infrastructure. Through the integration of the LSTM network, the hybrid predictive model drastically outperformed standalone physical models, reducing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by up to 74% and significantly improving the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) for discharge predictions. Future projections under the extreme SSP5-8.5 emission scenario indicate a critical "Precipitation Paradox". The model predicts a 15.9% acceleration in extreme flash flood peaks (reaching 250.80 m³/s) at the Ruliba catchment, severely threatening Kigali's urban infrastructure. In stark contrast, the downstream Rusumo catchment faces a +3.29°C temperature rise, generating an extreme evaporative demand of 1,460 mm annually that threatens the baseflow reliability of the Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project and regional food security. To mitigate these geographically polarized hazards which are characterized by excess flood energy in the West and severe volume deficits in the East, the study proposes a "Spatial Rebalancing Philosophy". A Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) prioritized the construction of high-capacity Rainwater Harvesting (RWH) Catchment Dams, the deployment of LSTM-enhanced Dynamic Early Warning Systems, and the exploration of Induced Inter-Basin Water Transfers as the most effective adaptation measures. The successful execution of these strategies provides a data-driven blueprint to enhance Rwanda's climate resilience, actively supporting the National Strategy for Transformation (NST2) and directly aligning with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 2, 6, 11, and 13).
DIGITAL INNOVATION ON MARKET EXPANSION IN THE FINANCIAL SECTOR: A STUDY OF FINTECH END-USERS IN LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-06) OWOLOYE, BRIGHT ODUNAYO; Covenant University, Dissertation
This study investigated the impact of digital innovation on market expansion in the financial sector, focusing on Fintech end-users in Lagos State, Nigeria. Despite the rapid growth of fintech services in Nigeria, fintech end-users still face challenges relating to financial exclusion, fraud risk, high transaction costs, limited transparency, and transaction inefficiency. Guided by the Technology Acceptance Model and Diffusion of Innovation Theory, the study examines how customer digital engagement, regulatory technology use, blockchain technology adoption, AI and automation implementation, and real-time payment infrastructure improve financial inclusion, fraud detection, cost reduction, transparency, and operational efficiency among fintech end-users in Lagos State. Four hundred (400) copies of a structured questionnaire were shared electronically to fintech end-users in Lagos State, including active customers, merchants, and agents of OPay, Moniepoint, Internopay, and related platforms. 384 valid responses were received and analysed with Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling using SmartPLS. The major findings of this study revealed that five dimensions of digital innovation (customer digital engagement, RegTech acceptance, blockchain adoption, AI and automation adoption, and real-time payment infrastructure) positively and significantly affect indicators of financial market expansion (fraud detection, cost reduction, transparency, and operational efficiency) in the Fintech sector. The study concluded that investing in user-centred platforms such as automated compliance, blockchain-enabled verification, explainable AI, and resilient instant-payment rails drives financial market expansion and results in operational efficiency of the Fintech firms; hence, the study recommended that Fintech firms should invest more in automated fraud monitoring systems, identity verification tools, and anti-money laundering technologies to enhance fraud detection and improve users’ trust in digital financial platform.
DIGITAL STRATEGIES AND CORPORATE PERFORMANCE: THE MODERATING ROLE OF THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT IN OPAY, LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-06) OLABODE, Oluwakemi Deborah; Covenant University, Dissertation
This study examined digital strategies and corporate performance, with particular attention to the moderating role of the regulatory environment in OPay, Lagos State, Nigeria. The study was motivated by the growing importance of fintech firms in Nigeria's digital financial services ecosystem and the need to understand whether digital strategy investments translate into measurable corporate performance under changing regulatory conditions. The independent variable was digital strategies, measured through digital infrastructure investment, process digitalisation, customer experience innovation, and data analytics capability. The dependent variable was corporate performance, measured through financial performance, operational efficiency, customer growth, and market performance, while the regulatory environment was treated as the moderating variable. The study adopted a quantitative research design and used a structured questionnaire to obtain primary data from employees of OPay in Lagos State. A population size of 100 respondents was used because the population was small and manageable; 80 valid responses were obtained and analysed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling. The measurement model confirmed strong reliability and convergent validity, with Cronbach's alpha values ranging from 0.853 to 0.952 and composite reliability values above the accepted threshold of 0.70. The findings revealed that digital infrastructure investment, process digitalisation, customer experience innovation, and data analytics capability each had significant positive effects on corporate performance. The full moderation model explained 74.6% of the variance in corporate performance. However, the interaction effect of the regulatory environment was negative and significant, indicating that while regulation provides legitimacy and structure, excessive compliance pressure may weaken the performance returns of digital strategies. The study concluded that digital strategies improve corporate performance in fintech firms, but their effectiveness depends on the quality, clarity, and proportionality of the regulatory environment. It recommended stronger digital infrastructure, deeper analytics capability, customer-centred innovation, process automation, and compliance-by-design practices for fintech organisations.
DISINFORMATION IN THE DIGITAL AGE: AN ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIA-US SECURITY RELATIONS, 2017-2025
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-08) CHIMA, Samuel Kalu Chima; Covenant University, Dissertation
Digital disinformation has become a major obstacle in the functioning of bilateral security relationships in today's international order, especially with regard to cooperation between developed and developing countries. As a result, this study to examined the effect of digital disinformation on Nigeria-United States security cooperation between 2017 and 2025, when Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) have been present and foreign malign influence operations in Africa have been on the increase. This research adopted a qualitative approach, grounded in semi-structured key informant interviews with 20 purposively selected respondents from academia, military, intelligence, diplomatic practice, media and civil society, complemented by policy documents, institutional reports and publications. The results show that disinformation has had a significant effect on bilateral trust, especially in the form of exaggerated claims of religious persecution that led to Nigeria being redesignated as a Country of Particular Concern (CPC) in October 2025. The disinformation strategies that are used are multi-layered, such as social media amplification, generative AI, recontextualized content, influencer laundering, and high-level lobbying. The study reveals a diverse multi-actor landscape of foreign state actors, domestic political actors, separatist/extramist groups, religious advocacy networks, and profit-driven platforms. The research combines constructivism and realism, highlighting the disinformation as an instrument of power competition and an ideational reconstruction process. To counter the erosion of bilateral trust, this study recommends the establishment of a joint Nigeria-United States bilateral mechanism for the coordinated identification, attribution, and disruption of disinformation networks targeting their security cooperation, building on and expanding the framework previously developed by the US Global Engagement Center before its mandate lapsed in December 2024.The study concludes that coordinated approaches of the statutory, technological, communicative, educational and bilateral cooperative nature are necessary for the effectiveness of countermeasures. Suggested solutions encompass establishing of a formal bilateral mechanism for countering disinformation, institutionalisation of fast-track strategic communication, strengthening regulatory processes with safeguards for civil liberties, increasing digital literacy initiatives, and independent fact-checking institutions.
EFFECT OF FLEXIBLE WORK ARRANGEMENTS ON EMPLOYEES’ PRODUCTIVITY IN LAGOS STATE PUBLIC SERVICE
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-08) DEBO-ADELEYE, Naomi Adefesola; Covenant University, Dissertation
The growing adoption of flexible work arrangements (FWAs), accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic and Nigeria's 2024 fuel subsidy removal, has raised important questions about their productivity implications in bureaucratic public institutions. Although the Lagos State Government introduced a formal flexible work policy in February 2024, empirical evidence on its effectiveness remained limited. This study examined the effect of telecommuting, flexible working hours, compressed work schedules, and job sharing on employee productivity in the Lagos State Public Service and assessed the moderating roles of supervision, performance monitoring, and accountability mechanisms. A cross-sectional mixed-methods design was adopted. The population comprised 4,665 employees from three selected Lagos State ministries, sampled using Krejcie and Morgan's (1970) method, with 335 questionnaires yielding 304 valid responses (76.2%) and 15 structured interviews. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, Pearson's correlation, one-way ANOVA, multiple regression, and moderation analysis; qualitative data were analysed thematically. FWA prevalence was uniformly low across all three ministries, with no significant inter-ministerial differences [F (2, 301) = 0.545, p = .580, η² = 0.004], supporting the first null hypothesis. Regression analysis showed that FWAs significantly predicted employee productivity, explaining 69.3% of variance (R² = 0.693, p < 0.001), rejecting the second null hypothesis. Job sharing and flexible working hours were the strongest independent predictors. Supervision, performance monitoring, and accountability mechanisms did not significantly moderate the FWA–productivity relationship (p > 0.05), supporting the third null hypothesis, though each independently predicted productivity. Qualitatively, paper-based processes, inadequate ICT infrastructure, and presence-based supervision were the primary barriers to implementation. FWAs, particularly through job sharing and flexible working hours, hold significant potential for productivity in the Lagos State Public Service. It is therefore recommended that the Lagos State Government institutionalise a comprehensive FWA Policy Framework, invest in ICT infrastructure, and transition to output-based performance management.
EFFECT OF MANAGEMENT PRACTICES ON SUSTAINABLE PERFORMANCE OF SELECTED EVENT FIRMS IN LAGOS STATE, NIGERIA
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-06) FADIYA, Boluwatife Oluwatobiloba; Covenant University, Dissertation
Despite the increased demand for event services, the situation remains challenging for event management companies in Lagos State, Nigeria, as they still struggle with weak strategic planning, suboptimal resource use, lack of brand awareness, and low customer relationship management practices. Though event management has become a major economic activity, literature on how the practices of event management influence sustainable performance together is limited, and most studies are general service-sector studies or studies focused on manufacturing and MSMEs, and not capturing the operational realities that are specific to event management-based services. The gap establishes a limitation for practitioners and policymakers in the sector to make decisions based on available evidence. The study explored the impact of event management practices on sustainable performance of selected event management companies in Lagos State, Nigeria based on this gap. A quantitative, cross sectional survey research design was used. The population of the study were 1451 registered firms and event planners in the event management industry in Lagos State. Sample size was calculated using the Taro Yamane formula at a 5% margin of error, which resulted in a minimal sample size of 314 respondents, but this was increased by 30% to make up for non-response, which returned a sample size of 408 respondents. The sampling method used was a multi stage sampling method which involved stratified sampling, simple random sampling and convenience sampling. A structured questionnaire was used to gather the data from the owners, managers and senior operational staff and 383 valid questionnaires were retrieved and analyzed by multiple regression analysis. The results showed that strategic planning had a significant impact on operational efficiency (β = 0.651 p < 0.001), resource management had a positive impact on adaptability (β = 0.650, p < 0.001), brand development had a positive impact on market visibility (β = 0.682, p < 0.001), relationship management had a positive impact on customer retention (β = 0.721, p < 0.001). < 0.001). The joint model accounted for 64.1% of the variance in sustainable performance (R² = 0.641, p < 0.001). The study found that good event management practices are key enablers of sustainable performance and long-term competitiveness of event management firms in Lagos State and recommended that event management firms improve their structured planning system, their resource allocation framework, their deliberate investment in the positioning of their brands and also invest more in their long-term customer relation management in order to improve their sustainable performance and long-term competitiveness.
EFFECT OF RESKILLING AND UPSKILLING STRATEGIES ON EMPLOYEE ENGAGEMENT IN SELECTED MANUFACTURING COMPANIES WITHIN LAGOS AND OGUN STATES
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-06) SUNNY-EKANEM, Miracle Ediomi; Covenant University, Dissertation
As manufacturing organisations become more automated and digital, their skill needs are changing, and there's a need for better reskilling and upskilling strategies to keep skills up to date and maintain engagement levels. This study examined the impact of reskilling and upskilling strategies on employee engagement in selected fast-moving consumer goods manufacturing companies in Lagos and Ogun States, Nigeria. In particular, the study focused on how the development of digital learning, technical skills, learning flexibility, and mentorship relates to affective, behavioral, and cognitive engagement. This study was designed as mixed-methods research. The quantitative data were gathered using a structured questionnaire administered to workers at the selected FMCG manufacturing companies, and the qualitative data were gathered through semi-structured interviews with managerial personnel at the selected company. The quantitative data were analysed with Smart Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM), and the qualitative data were analysed reflexively, through thematic analysis. The findings revealed that digital learning development had a significant positive effect on behavioural engagement (β = 0.214, p < 0.05) and cognitive engagement (β = 0.166, p < 0.05), but no significant effect on affective engagement (β = 0.085, p > 0.05). Technical skill development was a significant factor in affective engagement (β = 0.124, p ≤ 0.05), behavioural engagement (β = 0.181, p < 0.05) and cognitive engagement (β = 0.194, p < 0.05). Learning flexibility significantly enhanced affective engagement (β = 0.299, p < 0.001), behavioural engagement (β = 0.234, p < 0.001), and cognitive engagement (β = 0.267, p < 0.001). Similarly, mentorship significantly influenced affective engagement (β = 0.353, p < 0.001), behavioural engagement (β = 0.222, p < 0.01), and cognitive engagement (β = 0.209, p < 0.01). The study finds that reskilling and upskilling are important mechanisms to improve employee engagement and adaptability in technology-driven manufacturing contexts. Thus, the study recommends that FMCG manufacturing firms institutionalize flexible learning systems, strengthen mentorship programs, invest in continuous development of technical and digital skills, and integrate workforce development strategies into organizational policies to sustain employee engagement and competitiveness in an increasingly automated workplace.