Programme: Industrial Physics
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://itsupport.cu.edu.ng:4000/handle/123456789/28785
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Item Modelling and Prediction of Satellite Signal Path Loss using the ARIMA models at Ku-band in Lagos State, South Western Nigeria(ICSSD 2024 (IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science), 2025) Arijaje, T. E.; Omotosho, T. V; Aizebeokhai, A. P.; Akinwumi S. A.; Oyeyemi, K. D.Satellite signal path loss is the reduction of signal strength between the transmitting satellite and the receiving antennas on the earth surface. It is cause by effects such as reflection, free space loss, diffraction, refraction and absorption. It is also cause as a results of the environment, terrain contours, medium of propagation, height of antennas location and transmitting distance between the transmitter and receiver. Several methods such as the traditional methods and machine learning techniques have been explored. However, statistical method of path loss prediction has been completely utilized. In this work, prediction of path loss using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) technique was considered. Four different ARIMA models at Ku-band were explored using eight years in Lagos State. The method consists of some steps in the run time analysis: the first stage involved identifying the ARIMA model by creating an Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) plots and checking if the data are stationary. The second stage involved estimating the ARIMA model, which consists in testing the parameters' significance after obtaining the model's parameters. The ARIMA model is adopted if the parameters are significant. The third stage involved diagnostic checking, in which a test was carried out to see if the adopted model was statistically significant. The fourth stage involves predicting the path loss after the diagnostic process using the adopted or selected ARIMA model. From the analysis, it can be concluded that the best ARIMA model for path loss prediction in Lagos at Ku-band is ARIMA (1,0,0). The ARIMA (1,0,0) model is a better path loss prediction model than the other ARIMA models, indicating that the model parameters are significant at 0.05 with the slightest MSE error, thereby meeting the test of independence. Therefore, for sitting and planning of radio signal propagation technologies in the study location, policy-makers and engineers in telecommunication industry in Nigeria can take advantage of the results within the area of study towards sustainable tele-communication and infrastructure (SDG goal 9).Item Path Loss Prediction on Earth-Space Link Using Statistical and Time Series Approach at Ka-Band in Abuja, North Central Nigeria(ICSAEES-2024, Lagos, Nigeria, 2024) Arijaje, T. E.; Omotosho, T. V.; Aizebeokhai, A. P.Predictive path loss modelling is essential in designing wireless communication systems. However, the empirical methods of path loss prediction are inaccurate as the empirical models cannot be implemented outside the area or region where they are developed. This study focuses on improving the prediction of path loss using statistical approaches such as multiple linear regression (MLR) and time series models using eight (2014 – 2021) data retrieved from the global precipitation measuring mission (GPM) at Ka-band. The step-wise selected method was adopted for the multiple linear regression (MLR). In the exponential smoothing method, weighting is carried out exponentially, decreasing in the direction of the older values. The MLR analysis revealed that the MLR model performs well, with an accuracy of 99.52%. The R2 value of 99.52% indicated a strong correlation between the estimated and predicted path loss in the model. PL = 18.706 0.98459 − Pr +1.60027Pt + 0.99808Gr The P-value of the regression model is 0.000, indicating that the model estimated by the MLR procedure is statistically significant at a level of 0.05. Also, the results showed that the transmitted antenna gain is the most contributed predictor in the path loss with a value of 1.60027 dB. Likewise, the results from the exponential smoothing models revealed that the single exponential smoothing (SES) model performs better than the double exponential smoothing model with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 14.47%, indicating that the model's performance is good because the MAPE value falls within 10 – 20%. The mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean square deviation (MSD), and smoothing constant are 0.3215, 0.2313, and 0.9685, respectively. Striking a balance, the application of MLR and the SES models will improve wireless communication systems in Abuja, the North Central region of Nigeria, at Ka-band. Therefore, engineers and policymakers in the Nigerian telecommunication industry should assess the impacts of path loss within the study locations towards sustainable telecommunications and infrastructure (SDG goal 9) for planning and setting radiowave propagation technologies in the study locations and Nigeria at large.Item Seasonal Variation of Total Attenuation between Airborne Platform and Earth Station in South-West Region, Nigeria(7th International Conference on Science and Sustainable Development and Workshop, 2024) Arijaje, T. E.; Omotosho, T. V.; Aizebeokhai, A. P.; Akinwumi S. A.The seasonal variation of total attenuation in the southwest region of Nigeria has been computed using eight (8) years dataset at Ku- and Ka-band of the transmitted power of the radar, transmitted antenna gain and the received antenna gain of the satellite retrieved from the archived of the GPM. The results obtained fluctuates between the seasons at Ku- and Ka-band. From the results obtained at Ku-and Ka-band, the results from analysis showed that the peak total attenuation was recorded between the early (MAM) and late wet (JJA) season when the intensity of rainfall is maximum in the South-West region. As a result, the effect on the airborne-earth station link will be severe which may further lead to signal outage. However, the state where the highest total attenuation was consistent is Lagos state. These seasons and Lagos state must be taking into consideration by engineers and radiowave propagation group when planning and sitting radiowave propagation in the study area.