Programme: Economics

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ANALYSIS OF TELEMIGRATION AND YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN SELECTED SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-06) AMBRO-MOYE, KECHIRO JULIET; Covenant University, Dissertation
The study analyses telemigration and youth unemployment across selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. It investigates how electricity availability, internet penetration, and educational attainment influence young people’s ability to engage in telemigration and, by extension, impact youth unemployment. The study contributes to the body of literature on the future of work by supporting Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 8, which is about decent work and economic growth, and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 9, which covers industry, innovation, and infrastructure. With the use of a quantitative research approach, the study analyses the panel data from 31 selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 2017 to 2024, applying Fixed Effects and Random Effects panel regression, cross-sectional dependence diagnostics, and dynamic Panel Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) estimation to yield robust and unbiased findings. The findings from the study show that internet penetration and educational attainment significantly affect youth participation in telemigration, while electricity access, though it is important, it exhibits an uneven effect. This is because of infrastructural inconsistencies across the countries. The GMM results show that telemigration significantly reduces youth unemployment in the selected Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. In addition, the results show that persistent structural barriers, including digital inequality, skills gaps, and institutional weaknesses, limit the full potential of telemigration in the region. It offers policy recommendations, emphasising that governments across Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) should actively expand mobile money and digital banking infrastructure to enable youth to receive cross-border payments from telemigration platforms efficiently and at low cost. Reducing transaction costs and improving financial inclusion for youth digital workers will increase net earnings from telemigration and strengthen its impact in reducing youth unemployment. The cross-sectional dependence among Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries in the study means that telemigration shocks and opportunities spill across national borders. Regional bodies such as the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the East African Community (EAC) should facilitate regional digital infrastructure corridors, harmonised digital skills standards, and cross-border payment systems that enable youth telemigrants to efficiently receive earnings. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) framework should incorporate explicit provisions for digital services trade and telemigration, creating a policy environment that amplifies the employment benefits of telemigration at the continental scale. The study explains that telemigration can serve as a reliable pathway for youth employment and economic transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), provided that critical structural constraints are effectively addressed.
EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY AND DETERMINANTS OF BALANCE OF PAYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026-08) SAMUEL, Tolowani Lois; Covenant University, Dissertation
Nigeria's macroeconomic landscape has been characterised by persistent balance of payments pressures, exchange rate volatility, weak monetary policy transmission, and sluggish economic growth, challenges that have intensified the policy debate on the appropriate role of monetary policy and external sector management in driving sustainable long-run economic growth. Against this backdrop, this study examined the effects of monetary policy and the determinants of balance of payments on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1986 to 2024, with four specific objectives: to ascertain the key determinants of the balance of payments in Nigeria; to assess the impact of balance of payments determinants on economic growth; to determine the impact of monetary policy on economic growth; and to examine the interaction effect of the monetary policy rate and the real exchange rate on economic growth. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing Approach developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) across three econometric models. The key findings revealed that oil price is the dominant long-run determinant of Nigeria's balance of payments, with a positive and significant coefficient of 35.829 (p = 0.0006), while broad money supply exerted a significant negative long-run effect on the current account balance with a coefficient of -1.156 (p = 0.0033). Real exchange rate depreciation also worsened the current account balance in the long run with a coefficient of -0.014 (p = 0.0272). With respect to economic growth, trade openness emerged as the strongest positive long-run growth driver with a coefficient of 0.797 (p = 0.0000), while oil price exerted a counterintuitive negative long-run effect on growth with a coefficient of -2.150 (p = 0.0000). The monetary policy rate exerted a significant negative long-run effect on economic growth with a coefficient of -0.031 (p = 0.0019). Most significantly, the interaction term between the monetary policy rate and the real exchange rate (MPR×REXR) returned a negative and highly significant long-run coefficient of - 0.328 (p = 0.0000), establishing that the simultaneous pursuit of monetary tightening and exchange rate depreciation generates compounded contractionary effects on Nigerian economic growth that are substantially more damaging than either force acting independently. The study concludes that Nigeria’s growth is constrained by oil dependence, import intensity, and the compounded contractionary effect of monetary tightening and exchange rate depreciation. The study recommends export diversification, targeted monetary management, and stronger coordination of monetary and exchange rate policies.
INDUSTRIAL POLICY AND TRADE COMPETITIVENESS UNDER AFCFTA: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA’S TEXTILE AND APPAREL SUB-SECTOR
(Covenant University, Ota, 2026) OBISESAN, Mojolaoluwa Ruth; Covenant University, Dissertation
Nigeria's textile sub-sector was once among the largest in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but it has experienced a persistent decline in trade competitiveness despite decades of industrial policy interventions. Structural macroeconomic constraints, including exchange rate volatility, energy deficits, inflationary pressures, and weak institutional effectiveness, have compounded this decline, raising urgent questions about existing policy frameworks. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has further heightened this urgency, as the phased liberalisation of tariffs exposes domestic producers to intensified regional competition. This study investigates the effects of industrial policy and structural macroeconomic variables on trade competitiveness in Nigeria’s textile sub-sector under the AfCFTA. It examines the long-run and short-run effects of tariff protection, the real effective exchange rate, electricity consumption, inflation, and government effectiveness on trade competitiveness, as measured by the Balassa Revealed Comparative Advantage index. Adopting a mixed-methods design, the quantitative component employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach using annual time-series data spanning 1996 to 2023, while the qualitative component conducts a structured content analysis of primary AfCFTA framework documents extending to 2025. The findings reveal that tariff protection and electricity consumption have significant long-run effects on trade competitiveness, whereas the real effective exchange rate, inflation, and government effectiveness are not statistically significant. The content analysis reveals that AfCFTA's rules of origin framework and phased tariff liberalisation create a dual constraint that Nigerian producers cannot currently navigate. The study recommends performance-conditioned tariff restructuring, dedicated industrial electricity provision, upstream supply chain development, and active engagement with AfCFTA's rules of origin criteria as prerequisites for sub-sectoral competitiveness.