A Cointegration Analysis of the Impact of Selected Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

Abstract

The stock market and macroeconomic fundamental variables are important elements with a significant impact on economic growth and development. Thus, using the Johansen cointegration technique and the Vector Error Correction Model, this paper examines the connection between stock market performance and macroeconomic fundamentals in Nigeria. The study employs data from the Nigerian Stock Exchange and the Central Bank of Nigeria from 2010 to 2019. The findings from the empirical analysis reveal evidence that a long-run equilibrium connection exists between stock market prices and several macroeconomic factors in Nigeria. The result of the study indicates that the exchange rate and inflation exerts a negative influence on stock prices. A positive connection exists between money supply, crude oil prices, financial openness and stock prices in Nigeria. However, the result from the post-2016 economic recession reveals a negative and significant influence of crude oil prices on stock prices while all other variables maintain their direction of relationship with stock prices. This result implies that there is a need for the government to embark on aggressive economic diversification to other sectors of the economy. Also, the government must reduce the interest rate to encourage investment in the stock market, in addition to creating an enabling environment through policies and programs that would stimulate the economy and boost investors’ confidence.